Monday, February 17, 2014

We and Pace of Change




Facebook growth story is amusing and historically pointing out to  the fact that while for few decades a new billionaire did not join the club of billionaire, now on we would see it happening every 5 years and may shrink to 3 year or even a year in next 10-15 years!

looking back, at beginning of 20th century, we could never imagine a person from nowhere would become worlds richest man in 25 years. Bill Gates was the first one to achieve this.  

what looks like to me is that we have always been on acceleration of change as well written in "Third Wave".  

Stock market indices were slow to rise and fall, data of 50s show that such rise and fall were spread over years. The changes were not so prominent in 60s or even in 70s.  The present day market fluctuation of market in one week creates or wipes out trillions of dollar in matter of few weeks.

Fashion too has 12 or more seasons now. 

It amazes us that all of us enjoy these changes in all aspect of our lives. What is more important is to make this fast accelerating change to our advantage. A long term  10 years investment of yesteryears, has shrunk to 2-3 years. Frequency of buy and sell of properties have gone up significantly.

Share markets has reflected this change phenomenally. The traders square up positions in matters of hours and days.

Other side of the change is longevity of businesses. The banks can go down in matter of days. Bank of Barring, Dwada, Lehman Brothers are big example however, small and medium banks included shut down count is more than 5000 world wide in last 3-4 years!

In a single day in CA, USA over 400 companies had filed bankruptcy during the melt down.

Kingfisher Airline wound up in 3 years from launch taking down probably over few hundred millions down with it!

The impact of change is exactly what Alvin Tofler has predicted, enormous and astonishing. In a way he and all of us predict change in our own way, but are we ready to brace is question we need to ask?



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